What is it with the Twitter Tesla Investor?

They’re bullish on Tesla. They’re dismissal of all others.

Twitter Tesla are mostly “fan boys” (emphasis on them being men). And many of them say they’re also Tesla shareholders. This description represents many of the Tesla supporters I follow on Twitter. In addition to the Tesla fandom, Twitter Tesla absolutely adores Elon Musk. Like much of Twitter Tesla, I’m a long-term Tesla shareholder. I also believe in the company’s increasing technological prowess versus others. I also acknowledge that Elon Musk is the single most important driver of the company’s performance and vision for its future.

Unlike Twitter Tesla, however, I do not automatically disdain any attempts by other legacy automakers to develop their own pathway toward an electric and autonomous vehicle future. Twitter Tesla sees the future as a zero sum game. They believe Tesla will win, while all others ultimately will lose. They cannot imagine a scenario where there could be a successful “Coke” along with a prosperous “Pepsi.” The lesson of Walmart learning to compete and thrive in an “Amazon world” seems to be lost on Twitter Tesla. They seem to believe that old giants like Microsoft never learned to shift their business model from traditional software to the cloud in response to a changing technology and business environment.

Of course, history contains many of examples of companies never transitioning their business fast enough or complete enough in the face of disruptive changes to their industry. The traditional players in the global automotive industry certainly have been slow to respond to the future imagined by Elon Musk. After all, the first Tesla vehicle was the Roadster introduced in 2008 during the depths of an economic recession that drove two U.S. automakers into bankruptcy. Today, however, legacy automakers seem to acknowledge the disruption occurring in their industry. It seems very unlikely that every automakers will ultimately fail in a meaningful response to these disruptive changes. First mover advantages for Tesla surely exist. But first mover advantages don’t always result in a winner-take-all business environment.

Much of Twitter Tesla cannot wrap their minds around any company, particularly a legacy automaker, learning to shift their business to an electric vehicle-led and mobility-solutions-driven business model. It’s not hard to find tweets that support this belief.

• “I think with FSD [Full Self Driving] we’ll have a second wave of very strong FUD [fear uncertainty and doubt]…it will create shockwaves in many companies, industries and governments.”
• In response to the reveal of GM’s Hummer EV (electric pickup): “Great if you want to spend $100K on a truck.”
• From a Tesla bull and analyst responding to the recent GM Hummer EV reveal: “Having Lebron as a spokesperson is about as far away from letting the product speak for itself as you can get.”
• In another response about the Hummer EV: “Hummer is a joke….It equally illustrates how far behind they are…”
• From a response to a question that Morgan Stanley’s automotive analyst, Adam Jonas, asked during a recent Tesla earnings all: “MS Jonas. Bonehead question of the day. ‘Would tesla use Lidar if it was free?’
• A response to Consumer Reports recently rating GM’s Super Cruise better than Tesla’s Autopilot, one Twitter Tesla investor commented, “…Again Misunderstood…Under-Rating it Due to Knowledge Gap.”

What do these tweets have in common? There seems to be a healthy confidence in Tesla’s products, technology, and long-term prospects. That’s the good news. Yet, the assumption that only Tesla will “win the day” makes Twitter Tesla blind to competitors and dismissive of other potential investment opportunities. For example, the belief that somehow Consumer Reports has a “knowledge gap” regarding Autopilot versus GM’s Super Cruise ignores the fact that many other publications have come to the same conclusion. This also ignores GM’s self-driving technology subsidiary, Cruise LLC, acquired in 2016 to push the automaker toward an autonomous vehicle future. I’m sure much of Twitter Tesla has completely ignored the $2.25 billion invested in Cruise by Softbank in 2018, with another $2 billion investment commitment by Honda over the next 12 years. Why would any investor automatically dismiss the GMC Hummer EV revealed recently as “a joke.” It may be wise to have a healthy skepticism that GM can pull-off the Hummer EV, which seems like an incredible vehicle on paper. But to ignore the fact that GM actually has been in the electric vehicle development and manufacturing business for a long time is too dismissive. Additionally, to ignore what every senior GM executive has said publicly about the company’s Zero Crashes, Zero Emissions, Zero Congestion commitment tells me that Twitter Tesla either does not know, or does not care. Either scenario is unwise for the serious investor.

The Twitter Tesla investor is clearly all-in on Elon Musk and Tesla. Like these fanboys, I am as well. Might Tesla’s advantages be insurmountable? That’s a distinct possibility. I actually wrote about that possibility earlier this year. But never underestimate the power of a big company waking up. Might that company be GM or VW or Toyota? If so, Tesla could still become the long-term leader competing against a very strong second or third place legacy automaker in the future as well.

Originally published at https://taasmaster.substack.com.

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